John M. Francis,MAI Appraisal, Appraisal Review & Consulting




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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS (DCF's)
and
INTERNAL RATES OF RETURN (IRR'S)

The combined development of the personal computer and computerized spreadsheets in the late 1970s and early 1980s gave real estate analysts an incredibly useful tool for analyzing real estate investments. At the same time, it created the potential for very significant abuse.

While it is possible to develop DCF's with integrity, far too many appraisers don't have the technical knowledge or experience to do so. Rather, in all too many cases, they see DCF analysis as a vehicle for arriving at whatever value will please their clients. In his article "Deriving Internal Rates of Return from Market Transactions", Mr. Francis points out that manipulation of various factors within published "acceptable" ranges can lead to an office building that just sold for $5 million having a supposed indicated market value of anywhere from $3 million to $17 million!

Some of Mr. Francis' most significant "wins" in and out of the courtroom have resulted from uncovering errors in discounted cash flow analyses and derivation of related factors and internal rates of return in opposing appraisers' work.